How the Iran Oil Crisis Will Hit Australian Moving Costs — and the City-by-City Data That Shows What's Coming

The last time oil spiked like this, Brisbane removalists charged $24 above inflation in a single year. Melbourne rates jumped 27%. Perth customers quietly got the best deal in the country. Here's what our decade of data tells us about what happens next.

10 min read

Unless you've been deliberately avoiding the news, you'll know the situation with Iran escalated fast. US and Israeli military strikes began on 2 March, the Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly 20% of the world's daily oil supply flows every single day — was effectively closed, and oil markets reacted like someone pulled a fire alarm.

Brent crude hit US$119 a barrel before settling back around $90 as Trump hinted at a possible off-ramp. The situation remains volatile. But the damage to Australian fuel prices is already in the pipeline — literally.

We don't have to guess what happens next — we have the data

Most cost-of-living commentary about oil shocks is speculative. Ours isn't.

Find a Mover has processed over 200,000 jobs across Australia over the past decade. That's ten years of actual transaction data — not industry estimates, not surveys, but real quotes accepted by real customers paying real removalists across every major Australian city.

When Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 February 2022 and oil hit US$130 a barrel within weeks, we watched in real time what happened to moving costs across the country. While COVID supply factors — operator exits, staff shortages, reduced truck availability — were still playing out, the timing of the 2022 rate spike correlates strongly with the fuel price surge that followed the invasion.

Dataset from the Australian Bureau of Statistics - Automotive fuel in the CPI shows the Ukraine invasion produced a +12.5% single-month CPI spike in March 2022 — the largest in the dataset. The six-month cumulative increase from January to June 2022 was approximately 28%. Annual fuel CPI peaked at +43.2% in June 2022. Our data suggests fuel costs were a primary driver of what happened next.

The 2022 oil shock: what actually happened, city by city

The Ukraine war oil spike didn't hit every Australian city the same way. Some cities saw dramatic surges. One barely moved. And the way costs behaved after the spike — whether they recovered or stuck — varied significantly depending on local market conditions.

Here's what the data shows for each major city, with actual removalist hourly rates compared against inflation-adjusted baselines.

Brisbane — the biggest spike, and it's not over

Brisbane tells the most dramatic story in our dataset.

Hourly rates for a standard local move sat at $99–$110 from 2016 through 2020 — well below the inflation-adjusted baseline. Then COVID supply pressures pushed rates to $120 in 2021. When the Ukraine oil shock hit in 2022, Brisbane rates jumped to $149/hr — the highest of any major city, and a 24% increase in a single year.

At that point, Brisbane rates were running $24 above what inflation alone would have predicted. That's the oil shock premium, clearly visible in the data.

What's interesting — and concerning for anyone moving in Brisbane right now — is that rates dropped to $135 in 2023 before climbing back to $142 in 2026. Brisbane has the strongest recovery trajectory of any city — still below its $149 peak but well above pre-spike levels and heading in the wrong direction. Demand is strong, supply is tight, and the market hasn't softened.

Going into another oil shock, Brisbane customers are starting from an already elevated base.

Melbourne — the ratchet that never unwound

Melbourne's story is about what economists call a ratchet effect — prices that go up sharply and then refuse to come fully back down.

From 2015 to 2019, Melbourne local removalist rates sat flat at $89–$99/hr for five consecutive years. They began rising during COVID (supply constraints, operator exits from the industry) to reach $114/hr by 2021. The Ukraine oil shock then hit in 2022 and rates jumped to $145/hr — a 27% increase in a single year. While both COVID supply factors and fuel costs contributed to the rise, the sharpness and timing of the 2022 spike points strongly to oil as the accelerant.

They've since settled at $130/hr — but the inflation-adjusted baseline is only $116/hr. Melbourne movers are now charging $14/hr above what inflation alone would justify, and that gap has been persistent since 2022.

On a standard 5-hour Melbourne local move, that oil-shock premium costs you an extra $70 every time you move compared to what pre-2022 inflation trends would have predicted.

Sydney — approaching parity, but from below

Sydney's trajectory is different again. Rates were essentially flat at $96–$104/hr from 2015 to 2019, running below the inflation-adjusted baseline throughout. The Ukraine spike pushed rates to $140/hr in 2022 — a 9% jump — where they held for a full year before settling back to $130/hr in 2024 and 2026.

The interesting thing about Sydney right now is that at $130/hr, actual rates are almost exactly at the inflation-adjusted baseline of $129/hr. Sydney is at parity — which sounds fair, but it also means there's no cushion. Any oil-driven increase hits the actual rate directly because there's no above-inflation buffer to absorb it first.

Perth — a decade of undercharging, and still going

Perth is the outlier in our dataset — and the most interesting story for customers.

Perth rates fell almost continuously from $130/hr in 2015 to just $94/hr in 2020, even as inflation pushed the adjusted baseline to $140/hr. That's a $46 gap between what Perth movers were charging and what inflation would have justified. Perth customers were getting an extraordinary deal, though the flip side is that operators were under severe margin pressure.

The 2022 spike brought Perth back to $130/hr — but the inflation-adjusted baseline had by then risen to $155/hr. By 2026, Perth's actual rate of $124/hr sits $45 below the inflation-adjusted baseline of $169/hr.

Perth removalists are still, by a significant margin, the best value in the country relative to their own cost base. But it also means they have the least capacity to absorb further cost increases. An oil shock that pushes diesel up 40–50c/L hits a Perth operator on already thin margins harder than anywhere else.

Adelaide — the slow burn

Adelaide shows the most consistent upward trajectory of any city — a steady climb from $90/hr in 2015 to $140/hr in 2026, with the 2022 spike (from $130 to $140) being relatively contained compared to other markets.

At $140/hr against an inflation-adjusted baseline of $117/hr, Adelaide is running $23 above inflation — the second largest above-inflation gap after Melbourne. Adelaide customers have been gradually paying an increasing premium over the past decade, driven more by steady demand growth than by any single shock event.

The pattern that should worry you right now

Looking across all five cities, a clear pattern emerges from the 2022 data that is directly relevant to what's happening today.

When oil spiked in 2022:

• Every major city saw removalist rates jump — Brisbane by 24%, Melbourne by 27%, Sydney by 9%
• The cities with the most compressed margins pre-spike (Perth, Brisbane) saw the sharpest responses
• Rates never fully returned to pre-spike levels in any city
• Brisbane has the strongest recovery, climbing back to $142 — still below its $149 peak but well above all other cities' recovery levels

The Ukraine oil shock acted as a permanent reset of the floor price for removalist services across Australia. The Iran crisis is now creating identical conditions — and based on what the data shows, there's every reason to expect a similar repricing to follow within weeks.

The chain from Hormuz to your moving truck

Australia imports all of its liquid fuel. There's no domestic price regulation, no shock absorber — global crude flows directly to the pump within 7–10 days via the Malaysian Tapis spot price. That clock is ticking right now.

Removalists run diesel-powered trucks — typically 8–14 tonne vehicles burning around 30–40 litres per 100km under load. On a Sydney to Melbourne run (880km), a loaded truck burns 280–350 litres. At a 40c/L diesel spike, that's an extra $112–140 in fuel per leg. Factor in return trips, depot movements, and the rising cost of everything that moves on a diesel truck, and the picture gets clearer fast.

What it means for your specific move

The impact scales with distance. But even local moves aren't immune when depot costs, equipment and labour all track fuel. Based on the 2022 precedent and current oil modelling across two scenarios:

Scenario A — 40c/L diesel spike (likely near-term):

Scenario B — $1/L diesel spike (3-month Hormuz closure):

Interstate cost estimates are modelled from platform averages and fuel consumption benchmarks — actual costs vary based on your specific move. Get a quote for an accurate price.

Fuel's share of your moving bill — a ten-year view

Fuel typically accounts for around 18–21% of a removalist's operating costs in normal years. In 2022, that blew out to an estimated 24% — which is why rates jumped so sharply and so quickly. Under the current oil scenario, we're modelling that share pushing toward 28%.

When fuel becomes more than a quarter of operating costs, removalists have very little choice but to pass it on. The margin simply isn't there to absorb it indefinitely.

Where moving prices go from here

The oil situation is still moving fast. But based on what's currently being modelled by major forecasters, three trajectories are emerging — and our data gives us a clear read on what each one means for Australian moving costs.

The optimistic case: Goldman Sachs has based its near-term outlook on roughly five days of very low Strait exports followed by a gradual recovery over the following month.¹ The EIA currently forecasts Brent to average $79 per barrel across 2026 — sharply higher than its pre-crisis forecast of $58 — but that number assumes disruptions prove temporary and tanker traffic gradually resumes.² In this scenario, diesel rises 30–40 cents per litre and removalist rates follow the 2022 pattern exactly: rapid repricing within 4–8 weeks, a slow partial retreat, and a permanent floor reset that never fully unwinds. We've seen this movie before.

The base case: Goldman Sachs has warned that five weeks of disruption alone could push Brent to $100 per barrel.¹ Reports as of 10 March indicate Iran has begun planting naval mines in the Strait³ — which is not the behaviour of a party preparing to reopen a shipping lane. Under this scenario, the temporary fuel levies some operators reintroduced after 2022 become permanent line items, folded quietly into base rates within 60–90 days. That's how it happened last time.

The tail risk: The IRGC has stated bluntly that oil will reach $200 per barrel, warning that not one litre will pass through the Strait.⁴ Australian fuel modelling puts A$3 per litre at the pump as a live scenario under sustained disruption⁵ — a level the RBA has flagged explicitly as a significant challenge for consumers and monetary policy. At that point, we're not talking about a rate spike. We're talking about structural repricing across the industry — fewer operators, tighter availability, and increases that outlast the conflict itself by years.

Our decade of data points clearly toward the base case. Melbourne moving costs have already risen roughly 15% since 2024, before a single barrel of Iranian oil was disrupted. Every city in our dataset is starting this shock from a higher base than it started 2022. And in 2022, a 50% oil spike produced a 27% rate increase in Melbourne within months — with none of it ever fully reversing.

If Brent averages $90–100 through Q2 2026 — now the consensus view among major forecasters — the direction for Australian moving costs is not ambiguous. The only real variable is whether your quote is locked in before the repricing, or after.

What to do if you're moving soon

1. Lock in your quote now

Removalist quotes are typically valid for 7–14 days. Oil price changes take about 7–10 days to reach the diesel pump — meaning the current spike is arriving at bowsers right now. Based on the 2022 pattern, rate adjustments follow 4–8 weeks after a sustained fuel price increase. Locking in a quote before providers reprice could save you hundreds.

2. Watch for fuel surcharges

After the Ukraine oil spike in 2022, a number of removalists introduced temporary fuel levies of 5–15% on top of quoted prices. Read your contract carefully and ask specifically whether the quoted price is fixed or subject to fuel adjustment. On Find a Mover, quotes are transparent and directly negotiated with the provider — no platform commissions added on top, and no hidden fees.

3. Know your city's starting position

Based on our data, your exposure to oil-driven price increases varies depending on where you are:

• Brisbane and Melbourne are already running above inflation — further increases are likely to be passed on quickly
• Sydney is at exact inflation parity — no buffer, increases will flow through directly
• Adelaide has been on a steady upward trajectory regardless of oil — this accelerates it
• Perth operators have the thinnest margins — increases may be absorbed longer but will eventually stick

4. Get multiple quotes and compare

Not all removalists price fuel costs the same way. Some have locked-in diesel supply contracts, others are buying at spot price. In 2022, the spread between cheapest and most expensive quotes for the same job widened significantly during the spike — getting multiple quotes matters more, not less, when costs are volatile. Getting five quotes through Find a Mover takes about three minutes.

The bottom line

The situation remains volatile. Oil hit US$119, dropped back to $83 on ceasefire rumours, then bounced to $92. Nobody knows exactly where this lands.

What Find a Mover's decade of data across five cities tells us clearly is this: the last time oil spiked like this, Australian removalist hourly rates jumped 9–27% depending on the city, and have never fully returned to where they were.

Brisbane movers who were charging $120/hr in 2021 jumped to $149/hr within a year. Melbourne went from $114 to $145. Perth, squeezed on margins for a decade, finally repriced. And across every city, the floor reset upward and stayed there.

That's not speculation. That's ten years of real transaction data. And right now, we're watching the same conditions form again.

The only question for anyone with an upcoming move is whether they act before the prices change, or after.

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Get quotes now before prices move:

• Sydney removalists →
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• Perth removalists →
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Disclaimer: Find a Mover has processed over 1 million jobs across Australia since 2014. All removalist rate data is sourced from actual platform pricing. The 2026 data point reflects current rates as of March 2026, not a full-year average. Inflation-adjusted figures use CPI base year 2015. Fuel cost modelling uses industry diesel consumption benchmarks of approximately 30–40L/100km for a loaded 8-tonne moving truck. Oil-to-petrol price transmission modelling references AMP Capital economic analysis (Oliver, March 2026). Projected figures represent scenario modelling under stated conditions and should not be treated as price guarantees. Individual quotes will vary. This article contains forward-looking scenario modelling and should not be relied upon as financial or pricing advice.